ANALISIS KAUSALITAS PENERIMAAN PERPAJAKAN, PENERIMAAN NEGARA BUKAN PAJAK, BELANJA NEGARA, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

TRY ADRIANSYA, RAMADHAN (2023) ANALISIS KAUSALITAS PENERIMAAN PERPAJAKAN, PENERIMAAN NEGARA BUKAN PAJAK, BELANJA NEGARA, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan kausalitas antara penerimaan perpajakan, penerimaan negara bukan pajak, belanja negara, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia periode 1969–2021. Penelitian menggunakan data time series dari total realisasi penerimaan perpajakan, total realisasi penerimaan negara bukan pajak, total realisasi belanja negara, dan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Total sampel penelitian digunakan adalah 212 sampel dengan sampel pada masingmasing variabel penelitian sebanyak 53 sampel yang menggambarkan rentang data periode 1969–2021. Penelitian menggunakan uji kausalitas Granger untuk menemukan hubungan kausalitas antar variabel penelitian. Analisis Impulse Response Function (IRF) dan Variance Decomposition (VD) dilakukan terbatas pada variabel-variabel penelitian yang memiliki hubungan kausalitas pada hasil pengujian kausalitas Granger sebelumnya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan hubungan kausalitas satu arah dari penerimaan perpajakan terhadap belanja negara yang mengonfirmasi tax-spend hypothesis, hubungan kausalitas satu arah dari belanja negara terhadap penerimaan negara bukan pajak yang mendukung spend-tax atau expenditure-revenue hypothesis, hubungan kausalitas satu arah dari pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap penerimaan negara bukan pajak, dan hubungan kausalitas satu arah dari pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap belanja negara yang sejalan dengan Hukum Wagner. Kata Kunci:penerimaan perpajakan, penerimaan negara bukan pajak, belanja negara, pertumbuhan ekonomi, kausalitas granger This study aims to analyze the causality relationship between tax revenue, non-tax revenue, state expenditures, and economic growth in Indonesia during 1969-2021. The study utilizes time series data from the total realization of tax revenue, total realization of non-tax revenue, total realization of state expenditure, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The total research sample used in this study was 212 samples with 53 samples for each research variable which describes the data range for the 1969-2021 period. The study was conducted using the Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between the research variables. Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) analysis were limited to research variables that have a causal relationship in the previous Granger causality test results. The results showed a one-way causality relationship from tax revenue to state expenditure that confirms the tax-spend hypothesis, a one-way causality relationship from state expenditure to non-tax revenue that supports the spend-tax or expenditure-revenue hypothesis, a one-way causality relationship from economic growth to non-tax revenue, and a one-way causality relationship from economic growth to state expenditure that is consistent with Wagner's Law. Keywords: tax revenue, non-tax revenue, state expenditures, economic growth, granger causality

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