DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN BEA KELUAR TERHADAP SEKTOR BATU BARA DI INDONESIA: ANALISIS MODEL GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS PROJECT

Setiawan, Prayoga (2025) DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN BEA KELUAR TERHADAP SEKTOR BATU BARA DI INDONESIA: ANALISIS MODEL GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS PROJECT. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Indonesia, sebagai salah satu eksportir batu bara terbesar, menghadapi tantangan dari transisi global menuju energi terbarukan. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan bea keluar batu bara di Indonesia menggunakan model CGE berbasis GTAP Database versi 11 dan RunGTAP 3.75. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan penerapan bea keluar 5% dan 7% menurunkan PDB Indonesia hingga 0,003195% dan menyebabkan defisit neraca perdagangan sebesar 96,91 juta USD. Namun, kebijakan ini mendorong peningkatan konsumsi domestik, hilirisasi sektor energi dan manufaktur, serta kesejahteraan (EV) sebesar 358,45 juta USD. Penerimaan pajak ekspor meningkat, tetapi pajak produksi dan penghasilan mengalami penurunan. Di sisi lain, negara-negara seperti Australia dan Rusia memanfaatkan peluang dengan meningkatkan ekspor batu bara mereka. Kebijakan ini menciptakan redistribusi ekonomi global, namun potensi carbon leakage tetap menjadi tantangan. Keterbatasan penelitian ini terletak pada analisis dampak emisi karbon yang masih terbatas. Penelitian lanjutan disarankan untuk mengintegrasikan analisis lingkungan, dinamika ekonomi global, serta strategi mitigasi emisi karbon secara komprehensif. Kata Kunci: Batu Bara, Bea Keluar, CGE, GTAP ABSTRACT Indonesia, as one of the largest coal exporters, faces challenges from the global transition to renewable energy. This study analyzes the impact of coal export duty policy in Indonesia using a CGE model based on GTAP Database version 11 and RunGTAP 3.75. The simulation results show that the implementation of 5% and 7% export duties reduces Indonesia's GDP by 0.003195% and causes a trade balance deficit of 96.91 million USD. However, this policy encourages an increase in domestic consumption, downstream energy and manufacturing sectors, and welfare (EV) by 358.45 million USD. Export tax revenue increased, but production and income taxes decreased. On the other hand, countries such as Australia and Russia seized the opportunity by increasing their coal exports. This policy creates global economic redistribution, but the potential for carbon leakage remains a challenge. The limitation of this study lies in the limited analysis of the impact of carbon emissions. Further research is recommended to integrate environmental analysis, global economic dynamics, and carbon emission mitigation strategies in a comprehensive manner. Keywords: Coal, Export Duty, CGE, GTAP

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