DAMPAK KENAIKAN TARIF PAJAK: ANALISIS PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE GTAP

Gumilang, Gabiela (2025) DAMPAK KENAIKAN TARIF PAJAK: ANALISIS PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE GTAP. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Abstrak Rasio pajak Indonesia yang masih rendah mencerminkan bahwa pemerintah Indonesia masih perlu mengoptimalkan upaya pemungutan penerimaan negara. Salah satu upaya peningkatan penerimaan negara adalah melalui kenaikan tarif pajak. Namun, kebijakan ini dapat menimbulkan dampak negatif terhadap keseimbangan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak kenaikan tarif Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) Dalam Negeri, Bea Masuk, dan Pajak Dalam Rangka Impor (PDRI) menggunakan model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) dengan shock sebesar 10% dari tarif pajak sebelumnya. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa meskipun penerimaan negara dan neraca perdagangan meningkat, kenaikan tarif pajak berdampak pada penurunan PDB, dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Kata kunci: CGE, GTAP, PPN, PDRI, Bea Masuk Abstract Indonesia’s low tax ratio reflects the need for the government to optimize its efforts in collecting state revenue. One approach to increasing revenue is through raising tax rates. However, such a policy may have negative impacts on economic balance and public welfare. This study analyzes the impact of increasing the rates of Domestic Value-Added Tax (VAT), Import Duties, and Taxes on Imports (PDRI) using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), with a 10% shock applied to the existing tax rates. The results show that although state revenue and the trade balance increase, higher tax rates lead to a decline in GDP and public welfare. Keywords: CGE, GTAP, VAT, PDRI, Import Duties

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