ANALISIS DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN LARANGAN EKSPOR LOBSTER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE-GTAP

Nagara, Devitama Patria (2025) ANALISIS DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN LARANGAN EKSPOR LOBSTER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE-GTAP. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini mengkaji pengaruh larangan ekspor lobster terhadap perekonomian Indonesia dengan pendekatan model CGE-GTAP, yang berfokus pada analisis dinamika perdagangan internasional. Data sekunder dari GTAP versi 11 digunakan untuk mengukur perubahan dalam Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), neraca perdagangan, dan kesejahteraan ekonomi masyarakat. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan adanya penurunan PDB sebesar 0,00000706% dan penurunan neraca perdagangan sebesar 0,03 juta USD. Indikator kesejahteraan yang diukur dengan Equivalent Variation mengalami penurunan sebesar 1,30 juta USD, mengindikasikan adanya penurunan manfaat ekonomi pasca kebijakan. Selain itu, terdapat pergeseran tenaga kerja dari sektor perikanan ke sektor lainnya. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan simulasi alternatif lainnya untuk memberikan manfaat positif pada sektor-sektor ekonomi yang dapat dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Beberapa simulasi alternatif yang telah dilakukan menunjukkan hasil yang konsisten, tetapi variabel impor dan ekspor tidak menunjukkan hasil yang konsisten dalam hal kenaikan atau penurunan. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa pendekatan ini lebih tepat digunakan untuk melihat neraca perdagangan daripada untuk memantau perubahan impor dan ekspor pada setiap sektor. Kata Kunci: model CGE-GTAP, perdagangan internasional, ekspor lobster, sektor perikanan, PDB. xii ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of the lobster export ban on Indonesia's economy using the CGE-GTAP model approach, focusing on the analysis of international trade dynamics. Secondary data from GTAP version 11 is used to measure changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade balance, and economic welfare of the population. The simulation results show a decrease in GDP by 0.00000706% and a reduction in the trade balance by 0.03 million USD. The welfare indicator, measured by Equivalent Variation, decreased by 1.30 million USD, indicating a decline in economic benefits following the policy. Furthermore, there is a shift in labor from the fisheries sector to other sectors. Therefore, alternative simulations are needed to provide positive benefits to economic sectors that can be analyzed using the approach used in this study. Several alternative simulations have been conducted, showing consistent results, but the variables for imports and exports did not show consistent results in terms of increase or decrease. This suggests that this approach is more suitable for observing the trade balance rather than monitoring changes in imports and exports in each sector. Keywords: CGE-GTAP model, international trade, lobster export, fisheries sector, GDP.

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