Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sub Sektor Tekstil Tahun 2019 – 2021 Model Altman Z-Score Modifikasi

Zilvana, Salsabilla Maria (2023) Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sub Sektor Tekstil Tahun 2019 – 2021 Model Altman Z-Score Modifikasi. KTTA thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Perkembangan industri tekstil dan garmen di Indonesia mengalami kontraksi yang di antaranya disebabkan oleh penurunan pada permintaan pasar, persaingan dengan produk impor, gangguan pasokan bahan baku, serta kurangnya dukungan stimulus dari pemerintah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pergerakan kondisi perusahaan subsektor industri tekstil dan garmen dengan laporan keuangan terakhir menunjukkan ekuitas negatif yang terdaftar di BEI dari waktu ke waktu periode 2019 – 2021 dengan menganalisis kinerja perusahaan dan memprediksi kemungkinan financial distress menggunakan model Altman Z-score Modifikasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif deskriptif. Objek penelitian terdiri dari 8 sampel perusahaan subsektor industri tekstil dan garmen periode observasi 2019-2021 yang diambil dengan metode purposive sampling. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan korelasi positif antara penurunan performa kerja dengan rata-rata Z-Score yang lebih rendah dari rata-rata populasi periode 2019 s.d. 2021. Hasil analisis tren potensi kebangkrutan menunjukkan adanya penurunan pada periode 2020 dibandingkan dengan periode 2019 yang kemudian meningkat pada periode 2021, namun secara keseluruhan masih dibawah rata-rata populasi industri. The development of the textile and garment industry in Indonesia contracted, one of which are due to a decrease in market demand, competition with imported products, disruptions in the raw materials supply, and lack of stimulus support from the government. This study aims to see the movement of the condition of textile and garment industry subsector companies with the latest financial statements showing negative equity listed on the IDX from time to time for the period 2019 – 2021 by analyzing company performance and predicting possible financial distress using the Altman Z-score Modification model. This study used descriptive quantitative methods. The object of study consisted of 8 samples of textile and garment industry subsector companies for the 2019-2021 observation period taken by purposive sampling method. The results showed a positive correlation between the decrease in work performance and the average Z-Score which was lower than the average population for the period 2019 to 2021. The results of the trend analysis of potential bankruptcy showed a decrease in the 2020 period compared to the 2019 period which then increased in the 2021 period, but overall it was still below the industry population average.

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