Analisis Fundamental dan Valuasi Harga Saham PT Timah Tbk

ILMI, FAUZAN (2022) Analisis Fundamental dan Valuasi Harga Saham PT Timah Tbk. KTTA thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Abstrak Perang dagang Amerika Serikat dan Tiongkok tahun 2018 kemudian pandemi covid-19 tahun 2020 mengakibatkan ekonomi tidak stabil. Banyak perusahaan mengalami kerugian, termasuk PT Timah Tbk (TINS). Sebagai perusahaan terbuka, PT Timah Tbk sudah melakukan penawaran saham kepada publik. Untuk mengetahui nilai intrinsik perusahaan (saham), diperlukan analisis fundamental dan valuasi harga saham. Analisis fundamental terdiri dari analisis lingkungan bisnis (industri) dan strategi, akuntansi, keuangan, dan prospektif. Setelah analisis-analisis tersebut dilakukan, dapat dilakukan valuasi untuk mengetahui nilai intrinsik saham. Berdasarkan penelitian yang sudah dilakukan, mulai dari analisis industri hingga analisis keuangan, hasilnya adalah perusahaan memiliki kinerja yang tidak lebih baik daripada rata-rata kinerja PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) dan PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) yang menjadi acuan rata-rata industri. Maka, hasil dari analisis prospektif dan valuasi perusahaan juga mengacu pada analisis-analisis tersebut. Metode valuasi yang digunakan adalah price multiple, discounted cash flow, dan discounted abnormal earnings. Hasil perhitungan valuasi yang paling relevan berasal dari discounted abnormal earnings method dengan posisi saham TINS adalah overvalued, sehingga keputusan investasi yang diambil adalah menjual saham untuk yang sudah memiliki saham emiten TINS dan jangan membeli saham emiten TINS bagi yang belum berinvestasi. / The war between the United States and China in 2018 and then the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in an unstable economy. Many companies suffered losses, including PT Timah Tbk (TINS). As a public company, PT Timah Tbk has offered its shares to the public. To find out the intrinsic value of the company (shares), fundamental analysis and stock price assessment are needed. Fundamental analysis consists of analysis of the business (industry) environment and strategy, accounting, finance, and prospective. After these analyzes are carried out, an assessment can be made to determine the intrinsic value of the stock. Based on research that has been done, ranging from industry analysis to financial analysis, the result is that the company has a performance that is not better than the average performance of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) and PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) which are the reference for the industry average. Thus, the results of the prospective analysis and company valuation also refer to these analyzes. The valuation method used is price multiple, discounted cash flow, and discounted abnormal earnings. The most relevant calculation results come from the abnormal income discount method where the TINS stock position is overvalued, so the investment decision taken is to sell shares for those who already have shares of TINS issuers and do not buy shares of TINS issuers for those who have not invested.

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