Analisis Cash Forecasting Menggunakan Model Prophet di KPPN Sidoarjo

Priambodo, Aln Pujo (2022) Analisis Cash Forecasting Menggunakan Model Prophet di KPPN Sidoarjo. KTTA thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Perencanaan kas merupakan faktor yang krusial bagi efektivitas manajemen kas. Namun, penelitian terdahulu menyebutkan bahwa perencanaan kas satuan kerja pemerintah masih berada pada level yang tidak optimal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji model Prophet sebagai model alternatif cash forecasting untuk perencanaan kas satuan kerja pemerintah, khususnya di KPPN Sidoarjo. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data rencana dan realisasi penarikan dana harian tahun 2017-2021. Uji kelayakan dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai eror model Prophet dan metode forecasting klasik exponential smoothing berdasarkan metode MSE dan MAPE. Dari hasil penelitian, model Prophet memiliki tingkat eror yang lebih rendah daripada metode exponential smoothing sehingga model Prophet layak dijadikan alternatif dalam perencanaan kas di KPPN Sidoarjo./ Cash planning is a crucial factor for the effectiveness of cash management. However, previous research stated that the cash planning of government’s agencies is still at a level that is not optimal. This study aims to examine the Prophet model as an alternative cash forecasting model for cash planning for governmen’s agencies, especially at KPPN Sidoarjo. The data used in this research is data on daily fund plans and its realizations for 2017-2021. The test is carried out by comparing the error values of the Prophet model and the classical exponential smoothing forecasting method through MSE and MAPE forecasting evaluation methods. The result of this study found that the Prophet model has a lower error rate than the exponential smoothing method, thus making the Prophet model suitable as an alternative in cash planning at KPPN Sidoarjo.

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