DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN TARIF DAN DUKUNGAN DOMESTIK PADA KOMODITAS SAYUR DAN BUAH TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MODEL GTAP

Nurrizqi, Faiza `Aina (2023) DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN TARIF DAN DUKUNGAN DOMESTIK PADA KOMODITAS SAYUR DAN BUAH TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MODEL GTAP. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Ketergantungan impor pangan di negara berkembang merupakan isu yang timbul sebagai dampak negatif liberalisasi perdagangan, tak terkecuali Indonesia. Meskipun potensi sayur dan buah yang berlimpah, sebagai negara beriklim tropis ternyata Indonesia justru menjadi net importer sayur dan buah. Proteksi komoditas sayur dan buah dalam negeri diperlukan untuk menahan peningkatan laju impor sayur dan buah di era liberalisasi perdagangan. Beberapa skenario kebijakan disimulasikan untuk mengetahui dampak kebijakan tarif dan dukungan domestik pada komoditas sayur dan buah terhadap indikator sektoral (ekspor, impor, neraca perdagangan komoditas, dan output sektoral) serta indikator makroekonomi (PDB, kesejahteraan, dan distribusi konsumsi). Dengan menggunakan model GTAP standard model dan database versi 10, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa kebijakan liberalisasi perdagangan yang didukung oleh peningkatan penguasaan teknologi paling optimal dalam melindungi komoditas sayur dan buah domestik karena mampu meningkatkan PDB, ekspor, neraca perdagangan komoditas, output sektoral, kesejahteraan, hingga konsumsi paling tinggi. Sementara itu, kebijakan liberalisasi perdagangan yang dikombinasikan dengan subsidi output mampu meningkatkan ekspor, neraca perdagangan komoditas, output sektoral hingga konsumsi. Namun, kebijakan tersebut justru menurunkan PDB dan kesejahteraan. Hasil penelitian menggunakan Microsimulation terhadap distribusi konsumsi menunjukkan bahwa kelompok masyarakat termiskin mengalami perubahan konsumsi paling responsif terhadap perubahan harga pada setiap kebijakan yang diberikan. Food imports dependency in developing countries is an issue that arises as a negative impact of trade liberalization, so also in Indonesia. Despite the abundant vegetables and fruit potential, as tropical country, Indonesia has become a net importer. Domestic support for vegetable and fruit commodities is needed to restrain the increasing imports of vegetables and fruit in trade liberalization era. Several policy scenarios were simulated to determine the impact of tariff policies and domestic support on vegetable and fruit commodities on sectoral indicators (exports, imports, commodity trade balance, and sectoral output) as well as macroeconomic indicators (GDP, welfare, and distribution of consumption). Using the GTAP standard model and database version 10, this study found that trade liberalization supported by technology advancement were the most optimal in protecting domestic vegetable and fruit commodities as they were able to boost GDP, exports, commodity trade balance, sectoral output, welfare, and consumption the highest. Meanwhile, the trade liberalization combined with output subsidies was able to increase exports, commodity trade balance, sectoral output and consumption. However, the impact on GDP and welfare is unfavourable. Study on distribution of consumption using Microsimulation show that the poorest households were the most responsive to price changes in each simulation.

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