Double Taxation Agreement (DTA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Indonesia.

Pascal, Emilio (2024) Double Taxation Agreement (DTA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Indonesia. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menginvestigasi potensi dampak pembaruan ACFTA 3.0 terhadap nilai ekspor Indonesia, nilai impor Indonesia, dan arus perdagangan Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan menggunakan model keseimbangan parsial dalam WITS-SMART yang kemudian dianalisis secara deskriptif. Objek dalam penelitian ini merupakan negara-negara mitra ACFTA, yaitu Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Laos, Indonesia, Kamboja, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapura, Thailand, Vietnam, dan China pada tahun 2021. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ACFTA 3.0 meningkatkan ekspor ke negara mitra ACFTA sebesar 1,4 milyar USD. Beberapa komoditas dengan peningkatan ekspor terbesar, antara lain minyak kelapa sawit dan produk kayu. ACFTA 3.0 meningkatkan impor dari negara mitra ACFTA yang didominasi komoditas olahan makanan dan campuran untuk makanan atau minuman. Selain itu, ACFTA 3.0 juga mengubah arus perdagangan Indonesia. ACFTA 3.0 menimbulkan dampak penciptaan perdagangan yang didominasi komoditas olahan makanan dan sepeda. Selain penciptaan perdagangan, ACFTA 3.0 menimbulkan dampak pengalihan perdagangan yang didominasi oleh komoditas olahan makanan. Secara simultan, ACFTA 3.0 turut meningkatkan surplus neraca perdagangan dengan Malaysia dan Vietnam; mengurangi surplus dengan Filipina, Kamboja, dan Myanmar; meningkatkan defisit dengan China dan Thailand; serta mengurangi defisit neraca perdagangan dengan Singapura. Rekomendasi bagi pemerintah agar dapat mempertimbangkan apakah potensi dampak yang dihasilkan dari ACFTA 3.0, yaitu peningkatan ekspor, peningkatan impor, dan perubahan arus perdagangan yang diproyeksikan lebih besar dibandingkan biaya yang dikeluarkan, yakni penurunan surplus dan peningkatan defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia. This study aims to investigate the potential impact of ACFTA 3.0 reform on Indonesia's export value, import value, and trade flows. The research is conducted using a partial equilibrium model in WITS-SMART which is then analyzed descriptively. The objects in this study are ACFTA partner countries, namely Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Laos, Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and China in 2021. The results showed that ACFTA 3.0 increased exports to ACFTA partner countries by 1.4 billion USD. Some of the commodities with the largest increase in exports include palm oil and wood products. ACFTA 3.0 increased imports from ACFTA partner countries, which were dominated by processed food commodities and mixtures for food or beverages. In addition, ACFTA 3.0 also changed Indonesia's trade flows. ACFTA 3.0 has a trade creation impact dominated by processed food commodities and bicycles. In addition to trade creation, ACFTA 3.0 has a trade diversion impact dominated by processed food commodities. Simultaneously, ACFTA 3.0 also increased the trade balance surplus with Malaysia and Vietnam; reduced the surplus with the Philippines, Cambodia, and Myanmar; increased the deficit with China and Thailand; and reduced the trade balance deficit with Singapore. Recommendations for the government are to consider whether the potential impacts resulting from ACFTA 3.0, namely increased exports, increased imports, and changes in projected trade flows are greater than the costs incurred, namely a decrease in surplus and an increase in Indonesia's trade balance deficit.

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