DINAMIKA EKSPOR BIJI KAKAO INDONESIA: ANALISIS PENGARUH TARIF BEA KELUAR, HARGA PASAR, DAN PERMINTAAN GLOBAL

WIGUNA, YORDAN (2024) DINAMIKA EKSPOR BIJI KAKAO INDONESIA: ANALISIS PENGARUH TARIF BEA KELUAR, HARGA PASAR, DAN PERMINTAAN GLOBAL. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Hilirisasi merupakan proses peningkatan nilai tambah komoditas melalui pengolahan lanjutan, serta mengurangi ekspor bahan mentah. Kakao menjadi salah satu komoditas yang diupayakan untuk hilirisasi dengan mengurangi ekspor bahan mentah melalui kebijakan tarif bea keluar. Kebijakan tarif bea keluar biji kakao diharapkan dapat mengurangi ekspor bahan mentah komoditas kakao di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh tarif bea keluar, harga pasar internasional, dan permintaan global biji kakao terhadap volume ekspor biji kakao di Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan regresi linier berganda Error Correction Model (ECM). Tarif bea keluar berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap volume ekspor dalam jangka panjang, dan tidak signifikan dalam jangka pendek. Harga pasar internasional tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume ekspor biji kakao dalam jangka panjang, namun berpengaruh signifikan positif pada jangka pendek. Permintaan global berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap volume ekspor biji kakao baik dalam jangka panjang maupun pendek. Pemerintah direkomndasikan untuk menaikkan tarif bea keluar serta menambahkan lebih banyak level tarif. Selain itu, pemerintah juga dapat mengusahakan perluasan akses pasar produk kakao dan meningkatkan SDM industri kakao dengan melibatkan kerjasama berbagai kementerian dan lembaga. Downstreaming is the process of increasing the added value of commodities through advanced processing, and reducing the export of raw materials. Cocoa is one of the commodities sought for downstreaming by reducing raw material exports through export duty tariff policies. The cocoa bean export duty tariff policy is expected to reduce the export of cocoa commodity raw materials in Indonesia. This study aims to examine the effect of export duty tariffs, international market prices, and global demand for cocoa beans on the export volume of cocoa beans in Indonesia. The research was conducted using a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression Error Correction Model (ECM). Export duty rates have a positive significant effect on export volume in the long run, and are insignificant in the short run. International market prices have no significant effect on cocoa bean export volume in the long run, but have a positive significant effect in the short run. Global demand has a negative significant effect on cocoa bean export volume in both the long and short run. The government is recommended to increase export duty rates and add more tariff levels. In addition, the government can also seek to expand market access for cocoa products and improve the human resources of the cocoa industry by involving the cooperation of various ministries and institutions.

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