DAMPAK KENAIKAN TARIF PPN DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN : PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE

PRAJA, RAMA BHASKARA (2024) DAMPAK KENAIKAN TARIF PPN DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN : PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Pasca pandemi Covid-19, Pemerintah Indonesia membuat kebijakan untuk menaikkan tarif PPN dari 10% menjadi 11% pada April 2022. Kebijakan ini menuai banyak pro-kontra dikalangan pengamat ekonomi. Akan tetapi, Kementerian Keuangan bersikeras bahwa kebijakan ini bertujuan untuk menguatkan fondasi keuangan negara yang telah sangat terbebani pada saat pandemi Covid- 19. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak dari kenaikan tarif PPN di Indonesia terhadap perekonomian terutama pada kuantitas permintaan konsumen, harga, ekspor, impor, neraca perdagangan, PDB, tenaga kerja, kesejahteraan (EV), dan penerimaan pajak. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan model CGE-GTAP dengan database GTAP 11 serta aplikasi RunGTAP dan GTAPAgg. Sebelum simulasi dijalankan, perlu dilakukan penyesuaian baseline menjadi tahun 2021 dan penyesuaian tarif pajak dengan AlterTax. Hasil simulasi dengan RunGTAP menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan tarif PPN akan meningkatkan indeks harga konsumen, harga impor Indonesia, nilai dan kuantitas ekspor, neraca perdagangan, permintaan tenaga kerja, dan penerimaan pajak. Di sisi lain, kenaikan tarif PPN akan menurunkan kuantitas permintaan konsumen, harga ekspor Indonesia, nilai dan kuantitas impor, PDB, upah tenaga kerja, dan kesejahteraan (EV). Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan 1% tarif PPN akan meningkatkan inflasi sebesar 0,194% dan total penerimaan pajak sebesar 3,17%. Selain itu, kenaikan tarif PPN juga akan mendorong daya saing di pasar internasional karena adanya penurunan harga ekspor sehingga nilai dan kuantitas ekspor meningkat. Post-Covid-19 pandemic, the Indonesian government implemented a policy to increase the VAT rate from 10% to 11% in April 2022. This policy has sparked much debate among economic observers. However, the Ministry of Finance insists that this policy aims to strengthen the country's financial foundation, which has been heavily burdened during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to analyze the impact of the VAT rate increase in Indonesia on the economy, particularly on consumer demand quantity, prices, exports, imports, trade balance, GDP, employment, welfare (EV), and tax revenue. The analysis is conducted using the CGE-GTAP model with the GTAP 11 database, as well as the RunGTAP and GTAPAgg applications. Before running the simulation, adjustments to the baseline are needed to set it to the year 2021 and adjust the tax rates using AlterTax. The simulation results with RunGTAP indicate that the VAT rate increase will raise the consumer price index, Indonesia's import prices, export value and quantity, trade balance, labor demand, and tax revenue. On the other hand, the VAT rate increase will decrease the quantity of consumer demand, Indonesia's export prices, import value and quantity, GDP, labor wages, and welfare (EV). These results indicate that a 1% increase in the VAT rate will raise inflation by 0.194% and total tax revenue by 3.17%. Moreover, the VAT rate hike will also boost competitiveness in the international market due to a decrease in export prices, thereby increasing the export value and quantity

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