DAMPAK FTA REGIONAL TERHADAP KINERJA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MODEL GRAVITY

Sitorus, Yosef Felix (2025) DAMPAK FTA REGIONAL TERHADAP KINERJA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MODEL GRAVITY. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Indonesia mengikuti sejumlah FTA untuk memperlancar arus perdagangan internasional serta sebagai upaya peningkatan ekspor. Sejumlah FTA bersifat Regional yang diikuti Indonesia mendominasi jumlah mitra dagang anggota FTA yang diikuti. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak keikutsertaan Indonesia dalam FTA Regional terhadap ekspor dan impor Indonesia secara kuantitatif. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel rentang waktu tahunan dari 2003 s.d. 2023 dari 41 negara mitra Indonesia yang terbagi menjadi 20 negara mitra untuk masing-masing arus impor dan ekspor. Model gravity terdiri dari variabel PDB Indonesia, PDB mitra, jarak ekonomi kemudian dikembangkan bersama keterbukaan perdagangan mitra, nilai tukar efektil riil mitra, populasi mitra, dan dua variabel dummy FTA Regional yang dianalisis menggunakan regresi data panel dengan metode PCSE. Hasilnya menunjukkan seluruh variabel independen secara simultan memengaruhi ekspo dan impor Indonesia dengan signifikan. Secara parsial, setiap variabel selain nilai tukar mitra berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor dan impor Indonesia. Pengaruh keikutsertaan Indonesia dalam FTA Regional terbukti berpengaruh dalam bentuk efek penciptaan perdagangan baru terhadap negara anggota dan efek pengalihan perdagangan dari negara non anggota ke negara anggota FTA Regional. Efek penciptaan perdagangan meningkatkan ekspor dan impor Indonesia, sedangkan efek pengalihan perdagangan menurunkannya. Perbandingan peningkatan dan penurunan ekspor dan impor Indonesia yang menunjukkan bahwa keikutsertaan Indonesia pada FTA Regional memberi dampak peningkatan impor yang lebih besar. PDB Indonesia, PDB mitra, keterbukaan perdagangan mitra, dan populasi mitra bersama-sama meningkatkan ekspor dan impor Indonesia sesuai dengan prinsipnya. Nilai tukar efektif rill mitra tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor dan impor Indonesia. Indonesia perlu lebih berhati-hati dalam menjajaki FTA yang sedang direncanakan mengingat kompetisi persaingan global yang ketat serta kondisi geopolitik di mana suatu kawasan regional dapat cenderung membentuk suatu kekuatan ekonomi. Indonesia harus mengupayakan peningkatan utilisasi FTA disertai asistensi dan mengevaluasi prioritas sektor komoditas unggulan untuk bersaing di pasar global. Kata Kunci: Ekspor, FTA Regional, Impor, Model Gravity, Regresi Data Panel ABSTRACT Indonesia participates in several FTAs to facilitate international trade and to increase exports. A number of Regional FTAs in which Indonesia participates dominate the number of trading partner members of the FTAs in which Indonesia participates. This study quantitatively analyzes the impact of Indonesia's participation in Regional FTAs on Indonesia's exports and imports. The study uses annual panel data from 2003 to 2023, covering 41 Indonesian partner countries, divided into 20 partner countries for each import and export flow. The gravity model consists of Indonesia's GDP, partner's GDP, economic distance, and is developed with partner's trade openness, partner's real effective exchange rate, xiv partner's population, and two Regional FTA dummy variables analyzed using panel data regression with the PCSE method. The results show that all independent variables simultaneously and significantly affect Indonesia's exports and imports. Partially, every variable other than the partner's exchange rate has a significant effect on Indonesia's exports and imports. Indonesia's participation in Regional FTAs has a trade creation effect towards member countries and a trade diversion effect from non-member countries to Regional FTA member countries. The trade creation effect increases Indonesia's exports and imports, while the trade diversion effect decreases them. The comparison shows that Indonesia's participation in Regional FTAs has a dominant impact on increasing imports. Indonesia's GDP, partner's GDP, partner's trade openness, and partner's population together increase Indonesia's exports and imports. The partner's real effective exchange rate does not significantly affect Indonesia's exports and imports. Indonesia needs to be more careful in exploring planned FTAs, considering intense global competition and geopolitical conditions where a regional area can tend to form an economic power. Indonesia must strive to increase FTA utilization with assistance and evaluate the priority sectors of superior commodities to compete in the global market. Keywords: Exports, Gravity Model, Imports, Panel Data Regression, Regional FTA

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