ANALISIS DAMPAK PENGENAAN PAJAK KARBON TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN: PENDEKATAN BERBASIS CGE GTAP

HERTANTO, RUS (2025) ANALISIS DAMPAK PENGENAAN PAJAK KARBON TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN: PENDEKATAN BERBASIS CGE GTAP. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Permasalahan lingkungan seperti perubahan iklim yang ekstrim, peningkatan suhu global secara drastis, dan permasalahan kesehatan merupakan dampak yang ditimbulkan oleh gas rumah kaca. Untuk itu, perlu adanya skema pengaturan dalam bentuk regulasi yang diterbitkan oleh pemerintah di masing- masing negara untuk mencegah eksternalitas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis dampak penerapan instrumen pajak karbon terhadap perekonomian dan lingkungan di Indonesia. Permodelan CGE-GTAP digunakan untuk melakukan shock berupa pajak karbon dalam dua skenario, dengan skenario I berupa penerapan pajak karbon sebesar 1.84 USD/tCO2 sesuai dengan UU HPP dan skenario II sebesar 9.2USD/tCO2 setara separuh dari Singapore Carbon Pricing Act 2024/2025. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan pajak karbon di Indonesia mampu menurunkan emisi karbon yang dikeluarkan, baik secara nasional ataupun jika dilihat dari berbagai sektor, khususnya terhadap sektor batu bara yang merupakan konsumsi terbesar energi nasional. Namun, terdapat dampak negatif yang ditimbulkan oleh penerapan pajak karbon yaitu berkurangnya kesejahteraan serta Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia. Implikasi dari hasil penelitian ini adalah pemerintah dapat menerapkan pajak karbon dimulai dengan tarif minimal sesuai UU HPP, dan melakukan evaluasi secara bertahap. Environmental issues such as extreme climate change, drastic global temperature increases, and health problems are consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, regulatory frameworks issued by governments in each country are necessary to prevent externalities. This study aims to analyze the impact of implementing a carbon tax instrument on Indonesia's economy and environment. The CGE-GTAP model is used to simulate a carbon tax shock under two scenarios: Scenario I applies a carbon tax of 1.84 USD/tCO2 in accordance with the Indonesian Tax Regulation Law (UU HPP), while Scenario II applies a tax of 9.2 USD/tCO2, equivalent to half of Singapore’s Carbon Pricing Act 2024/2025. The findings indicate that carbon tax implementation in Indonesia can effectively reduce carbon emissions both nationally and across various sectors, particularly in the coal sector, which accounts for the largest share of national energy consumption. However, the carbon tax also has negative effects, including a decline in welfare and Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The policy implication of this study suggests that the government could implement a carbon tax starting at the minimum rate stipulated in the UU HPP and gradually evaluate its effectiveness over time.

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