Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Harga Properti Residensial di Indonesia

Bhaswara, I Wayan Dian Anindya (2025) Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Harga Properti Residensial di Indonesia. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Kebijakan moneter memiliki peran penting dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi dan memengaruhi sektor properti residensial melalui berbagai saluran transmisi. Perubahan dalam instrumen kebijakan moneter, seperti suku bunga acuan dan jumlah uang beredar, dapat berdampak signifikan terhadap dinamika harga properti. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter terhadap harga properti residensial di Indonesia dengan mempertimbangkan variabel makroekonomi lainnya, seperti Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) dan jumlah kredit perumahan (KPR). Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek antara variabel-variabel tersebut. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder yang bersumber dari Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK), dengan cakupan periode triwulanan dari tahun 2009 hingga 2024. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang, suku bunga acuan memiliki hubungan negatif yang signifikan terhadap harga properti residensial, sementara jumlah uang beredar, kredit perumahan, dan PDB memiliki hubungan positif terhadap harga properti residensial. Dalam jangka pendek, mekanisme koreksi kesalahan (error correction mechanism, ECM) menunjukkan adanya penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang, yang berarti bahwa setiap deviasi dari keseimbangan akan dikoreksi dalam periode selanjutnya. Temuan ini memberikan implikasi penting bagi pembuat kebijakan, terutama Bank Indonesia, dalam merancang kebijakan moneter yang lebih adaptif terhadap sektor properti. Selain itu, hasil penelitian ini dapat menjadi referensi bagi pelaku industri properti dan sektor keuangan dalam memahami dinamika pasar perumahan di Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Moneter, Harga Properti, VECM, Suku Bunga. xiii ABSTRACT Monetary policy plays a crucial role in maintaining economic stability and influencing the residential property sector through various transmission channels. Changes in monetary policy instruments, such as the benchmark interest rate and money supply, can significantly impact property price dynamics. This study aims to analyze the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on residential property prices in Indonesia by considering other macroeconomic variables, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and housing loans (KPR). This study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to identify both long-term and short-term relationships among these variables. The data used is secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK), covering quarterly periods from 2009 to 2024. The results indicate that in the long run, the benchmark interest rate has a significant negative relationship with residential property prices, while money supply, housing loans, and GDP have a positive relationship with residential property prices. In the short run, the error correction mechanism (ECM) suggests adjustments toward long-term equilibrium, meaning that any deviation from equilibrium will be corrected in the subsequent period. These findings provide important implications for policymakers, particularly Bank Indonesia, in designing more adaptive monetary policies for the property sector. Furthermore, the results of this study can serve as a reference for real estate industry players and the financial sector in understanding the dynamics of the housing market in Indonesia. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Property Prices, VECM, Interest Rate.

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