DAMPAK PENGALIHAN SUBSIDI BAHAN BAKAR MINYAK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN DISTRIBUSI PENDAPATAN DI INDONESIA

Simanjuntak, Johana Veronika (2025) DAMPAK PENGALIHAN SUBSIDI BAHAN BAKAR MINYAK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN DISTRIBUSI PENDAPATAN DI INDONESIA. Skripsi thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak pengalihan subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) terhadap pertumbuhan sektor lapangan usaha di Indonesia serta menilai efeknya terhadap distribusi pendapatan masyarakat. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis simulasi kebijakan pengalihan subsidi BBM menggunakan model Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) dengan data SNSE 2016. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengalihan subsidi BBM memberikan dampak yang bervariasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, dengan pengalihan ke sektor pendidikan dan kesehatan memberikan dampak jangka panjang yang paling signifikan. Kebijakan ini dapat meningkatkan kualitas sumber daya manusia, daya beli masyarakat, serta mendorong pertumbuhan sektor jasa secara berkelanjutan, dengan multiplier effect sebesar 0,3789. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga mengidentifikasi dampak pengalihan subsidi terhadap distribusi pendapatan, dimana alokasi subsidi ke sektor konstruksi menghasilkan distribusi pendapatan yang lebih merata. Berdasarkan temuan tersebut, disarankan agar kebijakan subsidi BBM dialihkan secara bertahap ke sektor-sektor produktif seperti pendidikan, kesehatan, dan infrastruktur, dengan tetap mempertimbangkan kebutuhan kelompok masyarakat yang bergantung pada subsidi BBM. Penelitian ini juga menyarankan agar pengalihan subsidi dilakukan dengan memperhatikan ketepatan sasaran, agar tidak menimbulkan beban ekonomi yang berlebihan bagi kelompok rentan. Kata Kunci: distribusi pendapatan, kebijakan fiskal, pertumbuhan ekonomi, social accounting matrix, subsidi BBM. Abstract This study aims to analyze the impact of fuel subsidy reallocation on the growth of business sectors in Indonesia and assess its effects on income distribution. The research employs a policy simulation analysis using the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model with the 2016 SNSE data. The findings indicate that fuel subsidy reallocation has varying effects on economic growth, with reallocations to the education and health sectors yielding the most significant long-term impact. This policy can enhance human resource quality, increase household purchasing power, and sustainably boost the growth of the service sector, with a multiplier effect of 0.3789. Additionally, the study identifies the impact of subsidy reallocation on income distribution, where allocation to the construction sector results in a more equitable income distribution. Based on these findings, it is recommended that fuel subsidies be gradually redirected to productive sectors such as education, health, and infrastructure while considering the needs of communities that rely on fuel subsidies. The study also suggests that the reallocation process should be carefully targeted to prevent excessive economic burdens on vulnerable groups. Keywords: income distribution, fiscal policy, economic growth, social accounting matrix, fuel subsidy.

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