Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan Subindustri Peralatan Kantor Pada PT Perdana Bangun Pusaka Tbk, PT Lion Metal Works Tbk, dan PT Modern Internasional Tbk Periode Tahun 2018-2020

NUGROHO, ZULFI AGRI (2022) Analisis Potensi Kebangkrutan Subindustri Peralatan Kantor Pada PT Perdana Bangun Pusaka Tbk, PT Lion Metal Works Tbk, dan PT Modern Internasional Tbk Periode Tahun 2018-2020. KTTA thesis, Politeknik Keuangan Negara STAN.

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Abstract

Financial distress merupakan tahap penurunan kondisi keuangan yang terjadi sebelum terjadinya kebangkrutan atau dapat diartikan sebagai kondisi dimana aliran arus kas perusahaan tidak mampu lagi untuk menutupi kewajibannya. Untuk menghindari terjadinya kebangkrutan manajemen harus mengatasi dengan cepat dan tepat, serta mengetahui apa penyebab dan bagaimana cara mengatasi financial distress tersebut. Oleh karena itu diperlukan suatu analisis prediksi kebangkrutan sedini mungkin. Penulisan karya tulis ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan pada perusahaan subindustri peralatan kantor yang terdaftar di BEI dan melakukan IPO sebelum tahun 2018 dengan menggunakan model Altman Z-Score, Springate, dan Zmijewski. Jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan yang diakses melalui website BEI (www.idx.co.id). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model Altman Z-Score, Springate, dan Zmijewski memberikan prediksi yang berbeda. Berdasarkan rata-rata nilai selama 2018 – 2020, model Altman Z-Score memprediksi terdapat 2 perusahaan bangkrut, sedangkan pada model Zmijewski 1 perusahaan diprediksikan bangkrut. Lain halnya pada model Springate, ketiga perusahaan diprediksi akan bangkrut. Dari hasil tersebut, diperoleh tingkat akurasi masing masing model, yaitu 22,22% untuk model Altman Z-Score, 11,11% untuk model Springate dan 44,44% untuk model Zmijewski./ Financial distress is the stage of declining financial conditions that occurred before bankruptcy or can be interpreted as a condition where the company's cash flow is no longer able to cover its obligations. To avoid bankruptcy, management must address it quickly and accurately, and find out what the causes are and how to overcome the financial distress. Therefore we need an analysis of bankruptcy prediction as early as possible. The purpose of this paper is to predict bankruptcy in office equipment sub-industry companies listed on the Stock Exchange and to conduct IPOs before 2018 using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski models. The type of data used is secondary data in the form of financial reports which are accessed through the IDX website (www.idx.co.id). The results showed that the Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski models gave different predictions. Based on the average value for 2018 - 2020, the Altman Z-Score model predicts that there will be 2 bankrupt companies, while in the Zmijewski model 1 company is predicted to go bankrupt. Unlike the Springate model, the three companies are predicted to go bankrupt. From these results, the accuracy of each model is 22.22% for the Altman Z-Score model, 11.11% for the Springate model, and 44.44% for the Zmijewski model.

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